Alert amid uncertainty
Context:
Observing that the “unprecedented shock” from the pandemic has left the economy stressed, the RBI said that while the monetary policy committee recognized the primacy of supporting a recovery, it was necessarily mindful of its inflation targeting mandate. monetary policy by the Reserve Bank of India since the COVID-19 pandemic spread in the country.
Key Details:
- Citing the extreme uncertainty that characterises the current outlook for inflation and economic activity, the RBI has left the key policy rates unchanged.
- While the monetary policy committee (MPC) recognised the primacy of supporting a recovery, RBI asserted that it was necessarily mindful of its inflation targeting mandate.
- The MPC’s mandate is to maintain inflation at 4 percent, within a band of +/- 2 percent.
- RBI is answerable to Parliament if it misses the inflation target for three consecutive quarters.
- Provisional June 2020 Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation reading of 6.1% had edged over the upper bound of the mandated medium-term goal.
- A spike in food prices, as well as cost-push pressures from higher transport fuel and raw material prices, are combining to obscure the inflation outlook.
- The RBI Governor has emphasised that the RBI is ready to act on rates once a durable reduction in inflation is sighted, vowing to ensure that the policy stance remains ‘accommodative’ for as long as needed to revive growth.
Background:
- The RBI has left the key policy rates unchanged in the face of rising inflation pressures.
- It has asserted that propping up economic recovery has assumed primacy.
- The moratorium on loan repayments offered to borrowers has not been extended beyond August 31.
- Banks have been allowed to restructure loans from large corporates, micro, small and medium enterprises as well as individuals.
- This will help stem the rising stress on incomes and balance sheets.
- Also, banks are free to decide if they want to extend the moratorium on instalment repayments.
- Rs 10,000-crore facility has been offered to the National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD) and the National Housing Bank (NHB) to boost rural lending and affordable housing.
- It is expected to ease liquidity concerns at the bottom of the pyramid.
- The facility to the NHB is to shield the housing sector from liquidity disruptions and augment the flow of finance to the sector through housing finance companies.
- Funds to NABARD will help ameliorate the stress being faced by smaller NBFCs and microfinance institutions in obtaining access to liquidity.
- Banks have been allowed to restructure individual borrowers’ loans by December 31, 2020, permitting a maximum extension of two years.
- Limits for loans against gold have been enhanced.
- Banks are required to assign 40% of adjusted net bank credit or credit equivalent amount of off-balance sheet exposure, whichever is higher, to priority sector, including agriculture and micro-enterprises.
- The scope of priority sector lending (PSL) has been broadened by including start-ups and enhancing borrowing limits for renewable energy sectors.
- The targets for lending to ‘small and marginal farmers’ and ‘weaker sections’ under the PSL will also be increased.
Concerns:
- The forecast on the economy is worrisome.
- The RBI expects the rural economy to turn in a robust recovery on the back of a strong showing by agriculture. However, deterioration in consumer sentiment in the RBI’s July survey undermines the prospects for a more broad-based revival in domestic demand.
- External demand faces headwinds from a world economy in recession and as global trade shrinks.
Way forward:
- RBI forecasts a contraction in real GDP in the current fiscal year. Nevertheless, it optimistically asserts that an early containment of the pandemic may reinvigorate its outlook.
- RBI has opted to focus its energies on trying to resolve the issues hindering the flow of credit amid more than adequate liquidity, cautious lenders and severely stressed borrowers.
- Through its recent policy decisions i.e., restructuring, resolution and enhanced gold loan proposals, it has acknowledged the sheer scale of the pandemic’s devastation on the finances of firms and households.
- The onus now is on Governor to ensure that the stability of the financial sector is safeguarded even as loan terms are reset to protect otherwise viable businesses.
- Any harm to financial stability risks undermining the economy as a whole